The Clock Is Ticking for Trump

Populism sows the seeds of its own destruction unless the populist finds a way to assume total power. Trump is enough of a sociopath to try, but he have the brains? (Source: here)

All populist leaders are in a race against time from the moment they are elected. Their policies tend to be so myopic, divisive, and ineffective that they usually only have a very short time to cement themselves into their seats of power. Due to the difficulty of assuming greater executive powers by conventional means, such as passing new laws, populists often try to gain more power by weakening or entirely dismantling the systems of political accountability that could bring their tenures to a crashing halt.

Successful populist leaders manage to acquire extra-ordinary powers – and usually become dictators, often holding onto power for years or even decades.

However, it is tricky business to assume power in this way and it requires great luck, considerable intelligence, or both. Populists, who successfully transition from democratic to dictatorial leaders also tend to be sociopaths, because they must have a compulsion to seek power that pays no heed whatsoever to the consequences for everyone else.

Fortunately, the vast majority of populists do not end up as dictators. While they are usually sociopaths, not many of them are intelligent enough to assume and hold on to power. Instead, they tend to get ousted quite quickly as the fallout from their ill-designed policies and their lack of brain capacity to handle so many complex political pressures soon undermine their support, both among allies and in the wider public. 

How does Donald Trump stack up in the populist leader stakes? Will he become dictator for life or will his term end prematurely? Based on his actions since taking office in January 2025, I would argue Trump belongs to the not-so-intelligent variety of sociopaths.

Consider the evidence:

• Less than two months into office, Trump’s support has begun to crumble. A poll released ahead of his State of the Union address finds that a statistically significant majority of Americans no longer believe the state of the union is strong (see here)

• There is mounting evidence that Elon Musk’s DOGE lay-offs and public spending cuts are not going down well in Republican town halls (see here)

• Senior GOP Congressmen publicly voice concern about Trump's pro-Russian agency on behalf of Putin (see here).

The US economy is also beginning to show worrying signs of weakness. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast has been revised down sharply as of 3 March 2025 (chart below). This weakness is due to the enormous uncertainty Trump has created about trade and institutional integrity, all of which now weighs heavily on investment.

The economy is tanking - Thank you, Trump! (Source: here)

While Republican Congressmen made valiant attempts to back Trump after the recent Zelensky debacle in the White House, the episode has not passed muster beyond the ranks of the brethren. There is a growing perception that Trump’s leadership and diplomatic skills are not up to the job. 

Think about it! In the Zelensky meeting, Trump managed to lose the confidence of the entire European continent, America’s longest and strongest allies, and effectively handed the mantle of leadership to Britain and France.

Quite remarkable stuff.

But there may be more in the pipeline, based on public statements by members of the Trump Administration. Trump and Co have publicly stated support for leaving NATO, the United Nations and even the World Bank and IMF. This would carve massive chunks out of the foundations of American hegemony in the wake of which questions will soon be raised about the US Dollar’s safe-haven status and US Treasury bills as risk free assets; needless to say, both are absolutely central to American soft power and prosperity (for a broader discussion of the concept of risk-free bonds see here).

Trump’s performance as president so far has been so shockingly bad that even I am surprised! It is important to remember that Trump has been president before! He also has extensive experience with legal issues (for better and mostly worse). Honestly, I had imagined, based on his experience, that Trump would have been far more surgical and efficient in building his power base at the start of his second term.

Specifically, I would have expected Trump to work hard right away to secure absolute control over the legal system, for example by appointing a slew of compliant new judges to the Supreme Court.

But he has not done so. Instead, he has issued a bunch of executive orders, which, though they make a lot of noise and create nice headlines will not support him politically for very long. In fact, many of Trump’s executive orders are already being challenged in the lower courts, where many will eventually be overturned. And once this starts to happen, the entire political tide will also turn against Trump, with the media in tow.

I am therefore prepared to go out in a limb here: I think Trump is simply too unintelligent and too short-sighted to succeed. I do not think he will finish his term.

Harvard economist Dani Rodrik noted in a recent article published by Project Syndicate (see here) that Trump is creating dangerously many divisions within his own power base that may ultimately bring about his demise.

To me, it is not yet clear exactly how 'The Fall of Trump' will come about – which specific straw breaks the camel’s back – but I agree with Rodrik that an implosion looks very likely. And I think it could happen anytime, even sooner than anyone expects.

Which brings me back to the point I made at the very top of this note: due to the unsustainable and contradictory policies Trump is pursuing, he must act quickly to lock himself firmly into power so that he can not be unseated. It is either that or an early ignominious exit. I certainly do not see Trump suddenly becoming a boring mainstream conventional politician; he must either double-down hard on state capture (see here) or he is out.

If Trump, or, more likely, his advisors, are intelligent enough to realise their predicament, we are in for a rough ride. We can expect Trump to launch a vicious attack on the institutional integrity of the United States, possibly very soon and most likely involving the Supreme Court.

The success or otherwise of this de facto coup d'état will determine whether the United States abandons democracy to become a fully paid-up member of the Dictator Club alongside Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela, or pulls back from the brink. The contrast between these options is stark, because pulling back from the brink will ultimately strengthen American democracy. Or, as Nietzsche put it, “Lo que no te mata te hace más fuerte”. 

The End