What is in store under Trump 2.0? (Source: here)
The US election outcome was in line with my prediction from July (see here). We are now entering American Shitstorm number 2. Who should be concerned?
First, everyone - by which I mean Americans and non-Americans alike - should be concerned. US democracy is seriously at risk. The Republicans now control the Senate and the president-elect commands near-total loyalty within the party. Donald Trump will face no resistance, when he begins to stuff the US Supreme Court with friendly judges. And once he has done so, Trump will have raised himself above the law. It’s how Hitler did it. It’s how Chavez did it. It is the time-honoured route to dictatorship.
And, needless to say, when the country with the largest and most modern military in the world turns into a dictatorship - led by a narcissist rapist felon with strong fascist leanings - it is not just Americans, who should worry; it is everyone in the world.
Second, women and minorities of all kinds (race, religion, sexuality) as well as people who have spoken out or acted publicly against Trump should be very worried. The lives of millions of undocumented immigrants are at risk. The freedom and equality and protection minorities in the US have taken for granted for some sixty years will now be taken away. Moreover, Trump, being a vengeful but conventional fascist, believes in accumulating and demonstrating power very publicly, so he will want to make a show of crushing his perceived enemies. He will be ruthless and derive pleasure from this act; he is not an empathetic man. He will bring the full powers of the state to bear, including blocking recourse to the judicial system for his enemies/victims. He will be particularly brutal towards the weakest of his targets, because they are easier to crush (so easy ‘wins’). Women’s rights, including women's right to control their own bodies, will be rolled back to the 1950s or even before that. Why so many women voted for Trump is beyond me; they will now harvest what they have sown.
Third, Europe needs to be very concerned. An isolationist, Trump is likely to reduce America’s commitment to NATO, maybe even pull out of the alliance altogether. Due to their inherent tribalism, the nations of Europe will find it almost impossible to pull together to organise an effective replacement for NATO. The door will therefore be wide open along Europe’s eastern borders for Vladimir Putin to further advance his ambition to re-establish the old borders of the Soviet Union. Ukraine, needless to say, is completely lost now. For more on Europe's predicament, see here.
Fourth, smaller nations in general need to be concerned about what is now likely to be the final and complete collapse in US global leadership. With the United Nations neutered, the US has up to this point been instrumental in maintaining some semblance of global order in the post Cold War-period. This leadership will disappear under Trump. In fact, it may even be replaced by support for bully nations with designs on their neighbours. Bully nations – think Russia, North Korea, Israel – will feel free to attack their neighbours, safe in the knowledge they have a sympathiser in the White House, who agrees with their way of conducting geopolitical business. Democracies that have gravitated towards fascism via the ballot box, such as Hungary and Israel, will of course also be very happy. Israel need not fear repercussions for its gross human rights abuses in Gaza and Lebanon. For more on the decline of Western leadership after the post-Cold War period, see here.
Fifth, the outlook for growth is bound to become more uncertain for three reasons. One is that Trump’s fiscal election commitments are not sustainable. They will generate a wild sugar-high, which will then inevitably give way to a crash. After all, this is how all myopic and populist fiscal policies pan out. The US Federal Reserve will try to do what it can to keep demand in check, which means higher and much more volatile interest rates - bad for investment and hence long-term growth prospects.
The second reason to worry about the economy is that Trump has promised a second trade war with China, one, which, according to Trump, will be far more draconian than the first. A second trade war with China will have many deeply negative implications among which I would include:
(a) Higher inflation as the tariffs on Chinese imports push up domestic prices of consumer and producer goods within the US;
(b) A stronger Dollar as the smaller US trade deficit pushes fewer Dollars into foreign hands and thereby reduces foreign demand for US Treasuries; and,
(c) Lower growth in general as the benefits of free trade are lost.
As an aside, when Trump unleashes his trade war it will be more important than ever to belong to a trade block. Britain's moronic decision to leave the European Union will now become even more costly than it has been so far. For a deeper explanation why 'going it alone' is so counter-productive, see here.
Finally, Trump will kick out millions of undocumented migrants, who make a huge contribution to the US economy. Who will do the jobs they currently do? And at what price? It does not take a genius to realise that the economy - plus welfare - will take a huge hit.
In addition, there could be second-round effects, such as capital flight from Emerging Markets and damage arising from copy-cat policies in countries that follow similarly moronic economic policies.
Sixth, the environment will obviously suffer. Even as the damaging consequences of global warming are becoming evident for everyone to see, the Trump administration is sure to cancel all US commitments to combating climate change. One can only hope that the powerful ongoing trend towards electrification and other sources of clean(er) energy have somehow attained enough momentum to continue on their own volition, regardless of who is in the White House. But this remains to be seen.
Seventh, American science is now at risk. The Trump entourage is replete with vaccine-deniers and religious demagogues, who will do anything to replace scientific insight as the basis for policy-making with superstition and fanciful nonsense, mainly to serve their private political and financial purposes. This will render the United States poorer, weaker, and more vulnerable. There is now a real danger that science-deniers and complete wack-jobs, like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., will be put in charge of critical government departments, such as the Food & Drug Administration, the Centre for Disease Control, the National Institutes of Health, and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The subjugation of science will also pose enormous dangers to USA's current standing as leader in a broad range of academic disciplines, including arts and humanities, engineering and technology, life sciences and medicine, natural sciences, and social sciences and management. In that long run, this bodes very poorly for prosperity.
Finally, I worry greatly for the social fabric in the US and other Western societies. Trump’s divisive policies have now proven to be a winning formula, so politicians in Europe will suck up to him and ape his approach. Trump's policies will also deepen divisions along income lines. One of his defining policy stances will be to support big business to which his close ties with Elon Musk and newspaper-owning billionaires already testify. Trump has no ideological opposition to monopolies whatsoever. In fact, he dreams of becoming a monopolist himself, both in economic and political terms. He will support companies with market power with all his powers as he glorifies winning and ridicules lesser people.
Much-needed regulation to combat the new generation of digital monopolies will for sure not be implemented, leading to a further worsening of the income distribution as the rich get even more obscenely rich (for a discussion of this issue, see here). As for workers, Trump does not care about them at all.
With social tensions thus likely to worsen, it is almost certain Trump will, at some point, look for scapegoats to blame for the misery and disappointment of his many poor, ignorant, selfish, badly educated, or just plain stupid supporters. Prepare to take cover! No one can count themselves safe. Once Trump has exhausted his stock of domestic scapegoats, he will look for replacements overseas; this is precisely why international conflicts always feature heavily in the latter stages of fascism.
Which leaves me with only one question: China. I am not sure Trump will confront China over Taiwan, because American isolationist presidents have usually been reluctant to get involved in foreign wars. Trump, if you recall, did not fight a war during his first term in office, which is somewhat unusual for Republican presidents. If Trump does not go to war with China over Taiwan that could definitely be seen as a silver-lining, but on the other hand his hesitation may prompt China to escalate its pressure on the island, if only to test how steadfast Trump really is in his resolve to make America great again.
The End
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